{
  "api_version": "v2",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-09T06:07:42Z",
  "election": {
    "id": "st_2026-09-06",
    "name": "Landtagswahl Sachsen-Anhalt",
    "date": "2026-09-06",
    "scope": "state",
    "state_code": "ST",
    "date_is_estimated": true
  },
  "data": {
    "metadata": {
      "state_code": "ST",
      "election_date": "2026-09-06",
      "election_id": "st_2026-09-06",
      "election_name": "Landtagswahl Sachsen-Anhalt",
      "model": "state-models lr 3_polls (exact lead; polls-only; Sonstige modeled + normalize; no new_party)",
      "lead": "3",
      "lead_model": "3_polls",
      "lead_horizon_days": 3,
      "poll_window_days": null,
      "last_poll_date": "2026-09-03",
      "asof_date": "2026-09-03",
      "last_update": "2026-09-04T07:47:02Z",
      "scenario_config_md5": "3feeeb440701645a2f93d20e7ce45c1a",
      "predictor_encoding": "state_models_exact_lead_v1",
      "shares_normalized_to_100": true,
      "n_draws": 4000,
      "draws_path": "/api/v2/state/st/draws.json",
      "source_repo": "zweitstimme-org/state-models",
      "districts_path": "/api/v2/state/st/districts.json",
      "candidates_path": "/api/v2/state/st/candidates.json",
      "parliament_path": "/api/v2/state/st/parliament.json"
    },
    "parties": [
      {
        "party": "CDU",
        "party_code": "cdu",
        "fit": 23,
        "low": 18,
        "high": 27
      },
      {
        "party": "AfD",
        "party_code": "afd",
        "fit": 41,
        "low": 36,
        "high": 47
      },
      {
        "party": "LINKE",
        "party_code": "lin",
        "fit": 12,
        "low": 9,
        "high": 15
      },
      {
        "party": "SPD",
        "party_code": "spd",
        "fit": 8,
        "low": 6,
        "high": 10
      },
      {
        "party": "FDP",
        "party_code": "fdp",
        "fit": 3,
        "low": 2,
        "high": 4
      },
      {
        "party": "GRÜNE",
        "party_code": "gru",
        "fit": 5,
        "low": 4,
        "high": 7
      },
      {
        "party": "BSW",
        "party_code": "bsw",
        "fit": 4,
        "low": 3,
        "high": 5
      },
      {
        "party": "Sonstige",
        "party_code": "oth",
        "fit": 4,
        "low": 3,
        "high": 5
      }
    ],
    "scenarios": {
      "min_probability_pct": 1,
      "hurdle_pct": 5,
      "items": [
        {
          "id": "largest_party_afd",
          "category": "largest_party",
          "label_de": "AfD stärkste Kraft",
          "probability": 100
        },
        {
          "id": "above_hurdle_spd",
          "category": "above_hurdle",
          "label_de": "SPD über 5%-Hürde",
          "probability": 98
        },
        {
          "id": "maj_ohne_afd",
          "category": "majority_excluding",
          "label_de": "Parlamentsmehrheit ohne AfD",
          "probability": 78
        },
        {
          "id": "maj_ohne_afd_bsw",
          "category": "majority_excluding",
          "label_de": "Parlamentsmehrheit ohne AfD und BSW",
          "probability": 70
        },
        {
          "id": "above_hurdle_gru",
          "category": "above_hurdle",
          "label_de": "Grüne über 5%-Hürde",
          "probability": 67
        },
        {
          "id": "abs_maj_afd",
          "category": "coalition",
          "label_de": "Absolute Mehrheit AfD",
          "probability": 22
        },
        {
          "id": "above_hurdle_bsw",
          "category": "above_hurdle",
          "label_de": "BSW über 5%-Hürde",
          "probability": 19
        },
        {
          "id": "coal_afd_bsw",
          "category": "coalition",
          "label_de": "Parlamentsmehrheit AfD und BSW",
          "probability": 9
        },
        {
          "id": "above_hurdle_fdp",
          "category": "above_hurdle",
          "label_de": "FDP über 5%-Hürde",
          "probability": 2
        },
        {
          "id": "coal_cdu_spd_gru",
          "category": "coalition",
          "label_de": "Parlamentsmehrheit CDU, SPD und Grüne",
          "probability": 1
        },
        {
          "id": "coal_cdu_spd_gru_fdp",
          "category": "coalition",
          "label_de": "Parlamentsmehrheit CDU, SPD, Grüne und FDP",
          "probability": 0,
          "approximate": true
        }
      ]
    }
  }
}