We are a team of political scientists from the University of Mannheim, LMU Munich, Hertie School Berlin and HU Berlin.
- Our goal is to use our statistical model to provide a broad audience with information and forecasts about the federal election that go beyond the snapshots of political sentiment provided by opinion polls (e.g., “Sunday polls“).
- Predictions of future events, in this case the outcome of the federal election, are always fraught with uncertainty. Therefore, it is particularly important to us to communicate the uncertainty of prediction models such as that of zweitstimme.org clearly and in a way that is easy to understand.
- This information can help journalists, experts and citizens to better assess and communicate actual party support and ultimately make better-informed voting decisions.
- For the 2021 Bundestag election, we are cooperating with the Süddeutsche Zeitung, on whose homepage current forecasts are regularly published by zweitstimme.org.
- Our model links historical information on federal elections with current polling data published on wahlrecht.de. Zweitstimme.org has already provided scientifically based forecasts for the 2017 Bundestag election and is now also accompanying the campaign for the 2021 Bundestag election.