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For us as scientists, it is important that our forecasts are transparent and comprehensible. Since 2017, we have published several (peer-reviewed) scientific articles on our model. With the publications, we also make our code publicly available. In order to reflect both longer-term party leanings and current political sentiments, our second vote model consists of two components - a structural component and a survey component. In addition, our constituency model allows us to calculate how likely a candidate from each party is to win a constituency....

We are a team of political scientists from the University of Mannheim, LMU Munich, Hertie School Berlin and HU Berlin. Our goal is to use our statistical model to provide a broad audience with information and forecasts about the federal election that go beyond the snapshots of political sentiment provided by opinion polls (e.g., “Sunday polls“). table.fixed { table-layout: fixed; width: 100%; } table.fixed td { overflow: hidden; } Thomas Gschwend Thomas Gschwend is professor in the Department of Political Science, University of Mannheim....