We are a team of election researchers from the University of Mannheim, LMU Munich, the Hertie School Berlin, and the University of Witten/Herdecke.

Our goal is to provide a broad audience with information and forecasts about the Bundestag election using our statistical model, which goes beyond the snapshots of political sentiment provided by opinion polls (e.g., “Sunday Questions”).

Thomas Gschwend

Thomas Gschwend Thomas Gschwend is a Professor at the Department of Political Science at the University of Mannheim. His research interests are in the areas of election forecasting, comparative political behavior, and judicial politics.

Simon Munzert

Simon Munzert is a Professor of Data Science and Public Policy at the Hertie School. His research interests include opinion formation in the digital age, public opinion, and the use of online data in social research. Simon Munzert

Lukas F. Stoetzer

Lukas F. Stoetzer Lukas F. Stoetzer is a Professor of Quantitative Methods at the Department of Economy and Society at the University of Witten/Herdecke. His research interests are in the field of comparative political behavior and political methodology.

Cornelius Erfort

Cornelius Erfort is a research associate in the DFG project "Election Forecasts for the 2025 Bundestag Election" at the University of Witten/Herdecke. His research interests are in the areas of political competition and comparative political behavior. Cornelius Erfort

Hannah Rajski

Hannah Rajski Hannah Rajski is pursuing a PhD in the DFG project "Election Forecasts for the 2025 Bundestag Election" at the University of Mannheim, focusing on citizen forecasts.

Elias Koch

Elias Koch is pursuing a PhD in the DFG project "Election Forecasts for the 2025 Bundestag Election" at the Hertie School. Elias Koch

Associated and Former Members

Marcel Neunhoeffer

Marcel Neunhoeffer Marcel Neunhoeffer is a research associate at the Statistical Methods Unit at the Institute for Employment Research in Nuremberg and at the Chair of Statistics and Data Science in the Social and Humanities at the Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich. His research focuses on the application of deep learning algorithms to social science questions with a focus on data privacy.

Klara Müller

Klara Müller is an associated member of the PhD Center for Social and Behavioral Sciences at GESS, University of Mannheim. Her research interests are in the field of political psychology and election forecasting. Klara Müller